US Cycle Monitor

Your workbook stops at . That is months before today, so every value below describes the economy as it was then. Scores, regimes and phases update as soon as newer prints are added to the file. How to add new prints

Live data from FRED through . Still behind: . These don't update automatically, so the cycle score, phase and ribbon use their older values until you add them by hand. Add them

Session preview. New prints for are applied in this browser tab only. Download the updated index.html from Data sources & links to keep them.

Growth × inflation

Momentum mapped onto your CUADRANT quadrants

Momentum is the 3-month change in the average y/y rate. Growth: industrial production, real retail sales, payrolls. Inflation: CPI, core CPI, PPI, core PPI, PCE, core PCE. The trail shows the previous 12 months.

Cycle score

Sum of your 25 indicator ratings, as in the MATRIX sheet

of ±
vs previous prints
Actual growth
/ ±
Actual inflation
/ ±
Biggest moves since the previous prints

Positive means hot: inflationary pressure and strong growth. Negative means cold. Your MATRIX rule reads it as negative = long, positive = short.

Liquidity

Injections & withdrawals score

/ ±
Real policy rate

Cycle phase

Business Cycle Monitor, z-score composite

Cycle score over time

Your weekly MATRIX log, the mid-2022 projection, and a monthly reconstruction from the data with release lags

weekly closes logged next to your scores, correlation full log recent weeks from your MATRIX sheet

Indicator matrix

of series. Select a row to chart it.

Economic indicators with category, latest value, previous value, change, trend, release frequency, market impact and model score. Column headers sort the table.
Previous Trend

No indicator matches these filters.

▲ ▼ change vs previous print Score runs from −10 cold to +10 hot, using your rating tables
Charts share one time axis, ending at the latest print among them.

Business Cycle Monitor

Average z-score of the survey inputs, using the means and deviations from your Business Cycle sheet

Phase = level against trend (0) and its 3-month direction. Your sheet averaged four inputs until late 2020 and three after; three is the default here.

Quadrant history

Monthly position on your CUADRANT map

Cells mark the active quadrant each month; the latest month is highlighted. Hover a cell for its momentum readings.

Now: Phase Quadrant

Sector roadmap by cycle phase

From your Business Cycle sheet (after the SSGA sector roadmap). The current phase column is highlighted.

Long ++ strong overweight Short −− strong underweight Short − underweight Watch list: names; cyclical , defensive , both ; market value in $bn as stored

Quadrant playbook

Your CUADRANT sheet, laid out like the growth × inflation map

Rows: inflation accelerating on top. Columns: growth slowing on the left. Highlighted: where momentum sits now.

Phase guide

What each phase looks like, from your Business Cycle sheet

The monitor calls the phase from the composite's level against trend and its 3-month direction; the Charts tab shows its history.

Backtest:

Return statistics stored on your Backtest sheet

Assetn% positiveAvg returnMinMaxStd devBias

The sheet does not say which period or signal "Zone 4" covers. Its "average negative" column repeats "average positive", so it is left out.

Data sources & links

Every series on this page lives in one block at the top of index.html. This page tells you where each one comes from, when the next print lands, and what exactly to paste.

Series
Sources
Latest print
File built
Live updates

Add new prints by hand

With live updates on, the FRED series refresh themselves. Only the series marked "Manual" below (ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services and the Dollar Index) need these steps.

  1. Get the number. Use the release or FRED link in the table below. FRED's Download → CSV is the quickest.
  2. Open index.html in a text editor and search for the series key, such as "cpi":. The first match is in the SERIES block.
  3. Append the print before the closing bracket of that line, keyed by the period it measures:
    "cpi": [ …,["2022-05",291.474],["2022-06",296.311]],
  4. Save and redeploy. In the Cloudflare dashboard, open your Pages project and create a new deployment with the updated folder (Direct Upload).
Rules that keep the numbers right
  • Store the raw series named under "What to store": index levels for CPI, PCE and production, the payrolls level rather than the change. The page computes changes, y/y rates and scores.
  • Key each print by the period it describes: the ISM report published on 1 July is "2022-06". Quarters use "2022-Q2", fiscal years "2022".
  • Revisions overwrite: re-paste the last two or three months when a release revises them.
  • PCE, core PCE and real GDP were rebased after your workbook was built. Replace those whole series from FRED rather than appending, or their y/y rates break at the seam.
  • New prints are scored by your rating table automatically. To set your own score for a period, add it to SCORE_OVERRIDES.

Deploying: Cloudflare Pages accepts a drag-and-drop upload of the folder that holds index.html. Direct Upload guide

Update helper

Paste FRED CSV rows or "date, value" lines. It checks them, shows the result and writes the replacement line for you.

Store:
Last in file:

"Apply in this tab" previews the new prints across the whole dashboard without touching the file. "Download" writes them into a fresh copy of index.html; it works when the page is served from Cloudflare or any web server, not when opened from disk.

Every input stream

Agency, release, links, schedule and what to store, one row per series

MetricSource & linksRelease scheduleIn your fileWhat to store and how to update

Release times are US Eastern. Calendars shift around holidays; each agency's calendar link has the exact dates.

Data notes

What changed between USA.xlsm and this page, and why

How the scores are calculated

Each of the 25 scored indicators maps its score input onto −10 to +10 with the rating table copied from your sheet. Values between two thresholds are interpolated and rounded; the ends cap at ±10.

Where your sheet holds a score for a period, that score is used as is. The page reproduces your MATRIX total of 119 for the July 2022 log exactly.

Group totals: leading (4 indicators, ±40), coincident (13, ±130), injections and withdrawals (8, ±80). "Actual growth" sums industrial production, GDP, current account, housing starts and retail sales; "actual inflation" sums the six price measures.

The monthly reconstruction only counts a print once it would have been published (one month after the period for most series, three for the current account and debt ratio), which is why it lines up with your logged scores from mid-2021 on.